2026 Authorization for Use of Military Force Against Iran

Introduced

In Committee

Floor

Crossed Over

Passed

Enacted

Overview Bill text 1 History 2 Sponsors

May 7, 2026 · House

Referred to the House Committee on Foreign Affairs.

May 7, 2026 · House

Introduced in House

PASSAGE PROBABILITY

1% Unlikely

Why this number

Stage base In Committee — base rate 2%, measured from US's completed sessions
Momentum -5 29/100 from the pace of recorded action
Time since last action -22 160 days quiet

A transparent scoring model over stage, momentum, recency, sponsorship and recorded votes — not a trained predictor. Treat it as a way to rank attention, not as a forecast.