PASSAGE PROBABILITY
2.5%
Unlikely
Why this number
-
Stage
base
Reported from Committee — base rate 27%, measured from VT's completed sessions
-
Momentum
-2
40/100 from the pace of recorded action
-
Time since last action
-22
253 days quiet
-
Sponsor influence
-1
44/100
A transparent scoring model over stage, momentum, recency, sponsorship
and recorded votes — not a trained predictor. Treat it as a way to rank attention,
not as a forecast.