PASSAGE PROBABILITY
23.8%
Unlikely
Why this number
-
Stage
base
Passed First Chamber — base rate 28%, measured from VT's completed sessions
-
Momentum
+2
59/100 from the pace of recorded action
-
Time since last action
-22
505 days quiet
-
Cosponsors
+4
3 signed on
-
Bipartisan support
+9
3 D · 1 R
-
Sponsor influence
+2
72/100
A transparent scoring model over stage, momentum, recency, sponsorship
and recorded votes — not a trained predictor. Treat it as a way to rank attention,
not as a forecast.