House concurrent resolution commemorating May 9, 2025 as the 250th anniversary of Ethan Allen’s arrival in Castleton in association with the War for Independence

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PASSAGE PROBABILITY

16.1% Unlikely

Why this number

Stage base Passed First Chamber — base rate 28%, measured from VT's completed sessions
Momentum +2 59/100 from the pace of recorded action
Time since last action -22 537 days quiet
Cosponsors +4 3 signed on
Sponsor influence +4 85/100

A transparent scoring model over stage, momentum, recency, sponsorship and recorded votes — not a trained predictor. Treat it as a way to rank attention, not as a forecast.