Constitutional amendment (second reference); marriage between two adult persons; repeal of same-sex marriage prohibition; affirmative right to marry.

Introduced

In Committee

Floor

Crossed Over

Passed

Enacted

Overview Bill text 3 Compare versions History 21 Sponsors

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3 versions

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PASSAGE PROBABILITY

33.4% Uncertain

Why this number

Stage base Passed First Chamber — base rate 49%, measured from VA's completed sessions
Momentum +6 78/100 from the pace of recorded action
Time since last action -22 196 days quiet

A transparent scoring model over stage, momentum, recency, sponsorship and recorded votes — not a trained predictor. Treat it as a way to rank attention, not as a forecast.