Providing for consideration of the bill (H.R. 3838) to authorize appropriations for fiscal year 2026 for military activities of the Department of Defense, for military construction, and for defense activities of the Department of Energy, to prescribe military personnel strengths for such fiscal year, and for other purposes, and providing for consideration of the bill (H.R. 3486) to amend the Immigration and Nationality Act to increase penalties for individuals who illegally enter and reenter the United States after being removed, and for other purposes.

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PASSAGE PROBABILITY

1% Unlikely

Why this number

Stage base Passed First Chamber — base rate 16%, measured from US's completed sessions
Momentum +1 55/100 from the pace of recorded action
Time since last action -22 405 days quiet

A transparent scoring model over stage, momentum, recency, sponsorship and recorded votes — not a trained predictor. Treat it as a way to rank attention, not as a forecast.