Proposing a constitutional amendment requiring the denial of bail to persons accused of certain offenses punishable as a felony who have previously been convicted of or who were released on bail for certain offenses punishable as a felony at the time of the new offense.

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PASSAGE PROBABILITY

5% Unlikely

Why this number

Stage base Passed First Chamber — base rate 22%, measured from TX's completed sessions
Momentum +5 74/100 from the pace of recorded action
Time since last action -22 504 days quiet

A transparent scoring model over stage, momentum, recency, sponsorship and recorded votes — not a trained predictor. Treat it as a way to rank attention, not as a forecast.