Proposing a constitutional amendment authorizing the legislature to increase the amount of the exemption from ad valorem taxation by a school district of the market value of the residence homestead of a person who is elderly or disabled.

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PASSAGE PROBABILITY

5.9% Unlikely

Why this number

Stage base Passed First Chamber — base rate 22%, measured from TX's completed sessions
Momentum +6 78/100 from the pace of recorded action
Time since last action -22 511 days quiet

A transparent scoring model over stage, momentum, recency, sponsorship and recorded votes — not a trained predictor. Treat it as a way to rank attention, not as a forecast.