PASSAGE PROBABILITY
70%
Likely
Why this number
-
Stage
base
Crossed Over — base rate 76%, measured from TN's completed sessions
-
Momentum
+2
57/100 from the pace of recorded action
-
Time since last action
-8
72 days quiet
A transparent scoring model over stage, momentum, recency, sponsorship
and recorded votes — not a trained predictor. Treat it as a way to rank attention,
not as a forecast.