celebrating the life and legacy of Casey Joe Wilson.

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PASSAGE PROBABILITY

9.8% Unlikely

Why this number

Stage base Introduced — base rate 39%, measured from SD's completed sessions
Momentum -7 16/100 from the pace of recorded action
Time since last action -22 220 days quiet

A transparent scoring model over stage, momentum, recency, sponsorship and recorded votes — not a trained predictor. Treat it as a way to rank attention, not as a forecast.