Companion to 492DG: "Alpha Day" at the State House

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PASSAGE PROBABILITY

1% Unlikely

Why this number

Stage base Passed First Chamber — base rate 11%, measured from SC's completed sessions
Momentum base 50/100 from the pace of recorded action
Time since last action -22 187 days quiet

A transparent scoring model over stage, momentum, recency, sponsorship and recorded votes — not a trained predictor. Treat it as a way to rank attention, not as a forecast.