Kate Barnard Day; May 23.

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PASSAGE PROBABILITY

23% Unlikely

Why this number

Stage base Passed First Chamber — base rate 45%, measured from OK's completed sessions
Momentum +0 52/100 from the pace of recorded action
Time since last action -22 505 days quiet

A transparent scoring model over stage, momentum, recency, sponsorship and recorded votes — not a trained predictor. Treat it as a way to rank attention, not as a forecast.