Requires elections and terms of certain officials occur on even-numbered years except in the city of New York

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PASSAGE PROBABILITY

3% Unlikely

Why this number

Stage base Passed First Chamber — base rate 16%, measured from NY's completed sessions
Momentum +2 60/100 from the pace of recorded action
Time since last action -15 115 days quiet

A transparent scoring model over stage, momentum, recency, sponsorship and recorded votes — not a trained predictor. Treat it as a way to rank attention, not as a forecast.