Requires a special election to fill a vacant supervisor position in towns with a population of six hundred thousand or more

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PASSAGE PROBABILITY

1% Unlikely

Why this number

Stage base Amended — base rate 13%, measured from NY's completed sessions
Momentum -2 42/100 from the pace of recorded action
Time since last action -22 169 days quiet

A transparent scoring model over stage, momentum, recency, sponsorship and recorded votes — not a trained predictor. Treat it as a way to rank attention, not as a forecast.