PASSAGE PROBABILITY
68.2%
Likely
Why this number
-
Stage
base
Passed — base rate 85%, measured from NY's completed sessions
-
Momentum
+5
73/100 from the pace of recorded action
-
Time since last action
-22
252 days quiet
A transparent scoring model over stage, momentum, recency, sponsorship
and recorded votes — not a trained predictor. Treat it as a way to rank attention,
not as a forecast.