establishing a commission to study the feasibility of reestablishing a state psychiatric hospital for adults with severe mental illness.

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PASSAGE PROBABILITY

7.5% Unlikely

Why this number

Stage base In Committee — base rate 27%, measured from NH's completed sessions
Momentum -4 32/100 from the pace of recorded action
Time since last action -22 219 days quiet
Cosponsors +3 2 signed on
Sponsor influence +4 90/100

A transparent scoring model over stage, momentum, recency, sponsorship and recorded votes — not a trained predictor. Treat it as a way to rank attention, not as a forecast.