relative to the counting of absentee ballots.

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Floor

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PASSAGE PROBABILITY

99% Very likely

Why this number

Stage base Passed — base rate 100%, measured from NH's completed sessions
Momentum +7 80/100 from the pace of recorded action
Time since last action -10 86 days quiet
Cosponsors +6 4 signed on
Sponsor influence +2 71/100

A transparent scoring model over stage, momentum, recency, sponsorship and recorded votes — not a trained predictor. Treat it as a way to rank attention, not as a forecast.