DOC One-Year Recidivism Rates of Men and Women Released 2017-2021

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Descriptive Analysis of Risk Reduction Programs

Massachusetts Department of Correction

One-Year Recidivism Rates of Men and

Women Released 2017 – 2021: A Multi-Year

Descriptive Analysis of Risk Reduction

Programs

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PASSAGE PROBABILITY

1% Unlikely

Why this number

Stage base Introduced — base rate 3%, measured from MA's completed sessions
Momentum -8 14/100 from the pace of recorded action
Time since last action -22 343 days quiet

A transparent scoring model over stage, momentum, recency, sponsorship and recorded votes — not a trained predictor. Treat it as a way to rank attention, not as a forecast.