ELECTIONS/INITIATIVE-REF: Authorizes a citizens advisory referendum election (OR SEE FISC NOTE LF EX)

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PASSAGE PROBABILITY

2.6% Unlikely

Why this number

Stage base In Committee — base rate 29%, measured from LA's completed sessions
Momentum -5 28/100 from the pace of recorded action
Time since last action -22 227 days quiet

A transparent scoring model over stage, momentum, recency, sponsorship and recorded votes — not a trained predictor. Treat it as a way to rank attention, not as a forecast.