PASSAGE PROBABILITY
3.2%
Unlikely
Why this number
-
Stage
base
Reported from Committee — base rate 23%, measured from IA's completed sessions
-
Momentum
+2
59/100 from the pace of recorded action
-
Time since last action
-22
586 days quiet
A transparent scoring model over stage, momentum, recency, sponsorship
and recorded votes — not a trained predictor. Treat it as a way to rank attention,
not as a forecast.