PASSAGE PROBABILITY
8.1%
Unlikely
Why this number
-
Stage
base
Introduced — base rate 14%, measured from 1,082,800 bills in completed sessions
-
Momentum
-6
24/100 from the pace of recorded action
A transparent scoring model over stage, momentum, recency, sponsorship
and recorded votes — not a trained predictor. Treat it as a way to rank attention,
not as a forecast.