PASSAGE PROBABILITY
16%
Unlikely
Why this number
-
Stage
base
In Committee — base rate 46%, measured from DE's completed sessions
-
Momentum
-5
26/100 from the pace of recorded action
-
Time since last action
-22
178 days quiet
-
Sponsor influence
-2
28/100
A transparent scoring model over stage, momentum, recency, sponsorship
and recorded votes — not a trained predictor. Treat it as a way to rank attention,
not as a forecast.