Relative to César Chávez Day.

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Floor

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PASSAGE PROBABILITY

21.7% Unlikely

Why this number

Stage base Floor Consideration — base rate 42%, measured from CA's completed sessions
Momentum +2 57/100 from the pace of recorded action
Time since last action -22 208 days quiet

A transparent scoring model over stage, momentum, recency, sponsorship and recorded votes — not a trained predictor. Treat it as a way to rank attention, not as a forecast.