A resolution to propose to the people of the State of California an amendment to the Constitution of the State, by amending Sections 9 and 10 of, and adding Section 7.5 to, Article II thereof, and by amending Section 8 of Article IV thereof, relating to elections.

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PASSAGE PROBABILITY

36.2% Uncertain

Why this number

Stage base Passed First Chamber — base rate 56%, measured from CA's completed sessions
Momentum +2 58/100 from the pace of recorded action
Time since last action -22 151 days quiet

A transparent scoring model over stage, momentum, recency, sponsorship and recorded votes — not a trained predictor. Treat it as a way to rank attention, not as a forecast.