California State Library: study: state butterfly.

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PASSAGE PROBABILITY

18.9% Unlikely

Why this number

Stage base Floor Consideration — base rate 42%, measured from CA's completed sessions
Momentum -1 44/100 from the pace of recorded action
Time since last action -22 152 days quiet

A transparent scoring model over stage, momentum, recency, sponsorship and recorded votes — not a trained predictor. Treat it as a way to rank attention, not as a forecast.