precinct committeemen; vacancy; application

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PASSAGE PROBABILITY

20.7% Unlikely

Why this number

Stage base Passed First Chamber — base rate 42%, measured from AZ's completed sessions
Momentum +1 54/100 from the pace of recorded action
Time since last action -22 207 days quiet

A transparent scoring model over stage, momentum, recency, sponsorship and recorded votes — not a trained predictor. Treat it as a way to rank attention, not as a forecast.