PASSAGE PROBABILITY
73.6%
Likely
Why this number
-
Stage
base
Passed — base rate 91%, measured from AL's completed sessions
-
Momentum
+5
72/100 from the pace of recorded action
-
Time since last action
-22
250 days quiet
A transparent scoring model over stage, momentum, recency, sponsorship
and recorded votes — not a trained predictor. Treat it as a way to rank attention,
not as a forecast.