PASSAGE PROBABILITY
23.8%
Unlikely
Why this number
-
Stage
base
Passed First Chamber — base rate 43%, measured from AK's completed sessions
-
Momentum
+3
62/100 from the pace of recorded action
-
Time since last action
-22
186 days quiet
A transparent scoring model over stage, momentum, recency, sponsorship
and recorded votes — not a trained predictor. Treat it as a way to rank attention,
not as a forecast.